Two Locks
I ain't no mathematician, but I think I know what I would do. Named after legendary game show host Monty Hall of Let's Make A Deal" fame, it's called the Monty Hall problem. Given three doors to pick to pick from: one with a brand new car lurking behind it and the other two with identical cans of soup. What would you do? I'm picking door One. I'd be fine with that, but then Monty gets tricky. Of course, he know where the car is, so adds a touch more risk. He opens door number Three to reveal one of those cans of tomato soup. Now, why did he do that? Go and complicate my life like that. But wait. I'm still ok with my choice of doors. I still feel real good about my choice of One. Now, he gets downright mean and dirty. He asks me if I want to change my door. My gut tells me stick with One. The chances of driving away in that car are equal. However mathematicians, who have survived a lot more Statistics and Probability classes than I, tell me I'll improve my chances of winning by switching to Two. They tell me my chances of winning improve to 2/3 of a better chance, than mine of 1/3. Now, self-doubt is beginning to creep in and do its thing. Have I told you lately that I HATE math? I'm too stubborn. I'm sticking with my first choice. You? I'm beginning to think that this choice is not going to be any kind of a 'deal'.
Monty Hall the classic huckster! Alive and well today, and as Elenka is fond of saying, "...making my brain itch!"
Please pass the crackers. I LOVE tomato soup!
either way you win. soup anyone?
ReplyDeleteLife is full of risks. Fun, isn't it?!
ReplyDelete?????????
ReplyDeleteI knew that some fine day, soon, he would run out of stuff to write about.
It was inevitable.
Very funny. I think, however, that Elenka has the keys to these two locks and you may find yourself behind a locked door before the weekend is over.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the hint re apostrophes. But you should know that's the first mistook I ever made! ;)
Didn't he offer you a trade for say....a shopping spree or something?
ReplyDeletethanks for the memory!
ReplyDeleteI think you are over-thinking this problem. Have some soup and crackers and enjoy the newly arriving spring.
ReplyDeleteAlways go with your first choice!
ReplyDeleteWell. There you have it. Clear as day.
ReplyDeleteThe older I get, the more I love rust. I think there's a connection.
ReplyDeleteV
Laughing at Virginia's comment. The rust did make for a great shot.
ReplyDeleteI've heard of the problem, a classic dilemma in probability. Math very interesting to me but I'm not that good at it. go figure.
ReplyDeleteNew cars are vastly over rated, tomato soup on the other hand mmmmm! Pass the toast!
ReplyDelete